Luck isn't personal, discipline is. Ways to improve your odds for success.
Jan 16, 2026
Luck isn’t personal.
Discipline is.
Written By Bart Berkey | Most People Don't
Do you bet on yourself? For me, I didn’t always.
For most of my career, I bet on the companies that I worked for.
I bet on their brand. I drank the Kool-Aid. This felt safe to me.
I've worked for many well-known brands and have always counted on them for feeling stable.
When COVID hit, I remember sitting at my kitchen table the day after I turned in my work computer. My phone was quiet in a way it had never been quiet before. The void and absence were strangely loud and uncomfortable.
No business cards, No title, No travel, No paycheck, No certainty.
Just empty space and a very difficult question that I hadn’t had to ask myself ever before.
Do I wait this out, or do I move on and move anyway?
I didn’t have a personal future master plan.
At this point I had working for the same luxury hotel brand for 16 years. I was successful, content, and had no plans to work anywhere else.
I didn’t realize that my future wasn't guaranteed.
Then I was forced to make a decision. I asked myself, "what's next?"
Knowing that at this time, more than ever, people needed connection, encouragement, and clarity. How could I help? This allowed me to get out of my own worry.
So, I made a small bet on myself for the first time and it was scary. This is what I did...
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I didn’t hire a team.
I didn’t overspend.
I didn’t rush to look bigger than I was.
I sold some stock, gave myself a runway, and decided to show up, daily.
Writing
Calling
Speaking wherever I could
I conducted 80 virtual presentations for free my first year.
Sharing my ideas freely.
Trusting that if I focused on helping people feel better, think clearer, and move forward, something would grow.
This decision came back to me during my recent conversation with Professor Mike Orkin, a statistician who has spent his life studying chance, probability, and why we misunderstand luck.
He shared a simple truth that stayed with me.
"Luck isn’t personal, it's mathematical"
This one sentence reframed how I think about success.
It also reframed how I think about "my luck, during COVID".
In retrospect was it bad or good luck?
As I often say in my keynote presentations, "Things happen for you, not to you".
Most people treat good luck like a reward system.
Like it chooses favorites.
As if it shows up when you deserve it.
But luck doesn’t know your story.
When we notice someone that wins big, lands a big client, or has a breakout year, we may ask, “Why them?”
We may also quietly ask, “Why not me?”
What Dr. Orkin explained is this: Your odds won’t change just because someone else wins. The probability that someone else succeeds is very different from the probability that you will succeed.
When anybody tries something, yes, someone may get lucky.
This doesn’t make luck meaningful, and it doesn’t make it repeatable.
What is repeatable is behavior.
Most People over-react to randomness.
Some People can win once and assume they’ve cracked the code.
They can also lose once and assume something is wrong with them.
This type of response is emotional.
It can lead to more urgent actions, more spending, and possibly more pressure than the moment actually requires.
That isn’t a good strategy. It’s hope wearing a disguise.
Dr. Orkin shared story after story of people who had smart opportunities but ignored discipline.
Many people confuse a good bet with betting everything.
They chase upside without protecting downside.
And this is where things can begin to break.
Success isn’t about eliminating chance, it’s about reducing how much you rely on it.
In gambling, skill outlasts luck.
In business, systems outlast bursts.
In life, consistency outlasts intensity.
Dr. Orkin put it simply:
"If you do the same smart thing - over and over again, randomness fades and predictability takes over."
The law of averages kicks in.
This part isn’t flashy, shiny, or quite as
exciting.
The right routine actions can feel monotonous, but they will increase your probability of success.
The law of averages isn’t fast, and it can take an unpredictable amount of time.
Things will happen when they happen, with the right people at the right time.
This may not feel lucky.
However it will feel well deserved and earned. It may still look lucky to others who haven't noticed the consistent effort you have put forth.
This works. You've probably heard it's a numbers game, it takes "x" many "no's" until you get a "yes".
Here’s the reframe I’m carrying with me:
"Luck might open a door once, I understand, but discipline will keep it open."
Skill compounds.
Relationships compound.
Reputation compounds.
Realize that when you make small, steady strides on the right things, your energy, your learning, your relationships, you will hit your goals and targets.
You just need to stay in the game.
So instead of asking, “How can I get lucky?” try asking:
What can I do repeatedly to improve my odds?
What can I do to protect myself from overspending physically & emotionally, and instead, focus on the essential repeatable actions that will enable me to reach my goals and improve my "luck"?
Most People hope luck will rescue them.
Most People Don't "bet on themselves",
and commit to the essential consistent activities that will carve their path to success.
The people who don't rely on luck, build their on path to success.
They protect their downside
They invest in themselves steadily
They show up consistently
Over time, these people notice that chance stops being the driver and becomes background noise.
If this resonates, I’d love to hear from you.
What’s a small bet you’re making right now?
Where are you choosing consistency over urgency?
Most People Don’t understand the odds of their strategic consistent action.
You just need to understand your goal and start you next smart move, then repeat. Over and over and over.
